This paper argues that standard multi-agent forecasting fails because identical evidence causes LLMs to herd rather than revise beliefs. The authors propose designing information asymmetry by partitioning data into shared public and disjoint private subsets. This forces agents to rely on deliberation to share exclusive knowledge, theoretically improving calibration and reasoning.
- Identical evidence causes multi-agent LLMs to herd, negating deliberation benefits.
- Partitioning evidence into public and private subsets breaks symmetry.
- Private subsets force agents to deliberate to share unique insights.
- This design theoretically improves forecasting calibration over single-agent models.